Election 2010

What happened in the 2010 Election? Why?

These are two questions which will be answered in two Breakfast Seminars held this week - in Cardiff on Wednesday morning 26th May 2010, and in Aberystwyth on Friday morning 28th May 2010.

In these seminars, Dr Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre (WGC), and Professor Roger Scully from Aberystwyth University’s Institute of Welsh Politics (IWP) will disseminate some of the data collected from the 2010 Welsh Election Survey.

The seminars will be held in Cardiff at the Norwegian Church in Cardiff Bay, and in Aberystwyth at the Welsh Assembly Buildings, Rhodfa Padarn, and are organised by the WGC and the IWP.
 
The 2010 Welsh Election Survey was conducted by the IWP and WGC with the leading polling company YouGov. A representative sample of the Welsh electorate, comprising 1475 respondents, were surveyed immediately after the UK general election on 6th May.

As well as providing valuable insights into the 2010 election, findings from the survey will be used to inform a major study of the 2011 National Assembly election, for which the IWP and WGC have secured substantial funding from the Economic and Social Research Council of the United Kingdom.

The election saw the Labour party remain by far the strongest in Wales, despite a significant decline in its vote. Prof Roger Scully, Director of the Institute of Welsh Politics, commented that “Labour’s performance in Wales in 2010 was both historically bad and yet unexpectedly good. Labour’s share of the vote was its lowest in Wales since 1918, and lower in Wales than in Scotland for the first time ever.”

“The fact that Labour still dominates Wales’ parliamentary representation shows two things. First, the sheer extent of Labour’s historic domination of Welsh politics. And second, the inability of any one of Labour’s opponents to present a sufficiently convincing alternative. In 2010, our survey shows that there was a great deal of goodwill towards the Liberal Democrats in Wales. But most of that goodwill failed, ultimately, to be converted into votes”, he added.

As well as discussing the parties’ performance at the election, the seminars will present data showing public perceptions of the performance of the Labour-Plaid coalition in Cardiff Bay. These findings show an interesting disparity in how people in Wales attribute policy outcomes.

The majority of those who think that things have improved in areas like health, education and the economy in recent years attribute this success to the Assembly Government; of those who think that things have declined, the majority blame the UK government!

In addition, there is evidence on how people wish Wales to be governed and how they are likely to vote in a referendum on greater powers for the National Assembly. This evidence shows broadly positive attitudes to devolution, and significant support for taking devolution further.

The majority of voters think that the Welsh Assembly Government should have most influence over governing Wales in general, and specifically over running the NHS and schools. Half of all respondents also suggest that the Assembly Government, rather than government in Westminster, should shape policy concerning the Police.

On a referendum, 50 percent of voters indicate that they intend to vote ‘Yes’ in a referendum on more powers for the National Assembly; 32 percent state that they intend to vote ‘No’, with the remainder undecided or not intending to vote.

Commenting on the research, Dr Richard Wyn Jones, said, “With the holding of a referendum on extending further legislative powers to the National Assembly now a matter of when rather than if, there is no doubt that the coalition government in Wales, and all those who favour more powers, will be buoyed by these findings.”

“This is especially the case as this is the latest in a series of polls that suggest that the ‘Yes’ camp heading for a relatively comfortable margin of victory. While the final result cannot be taken for granted, the momentum is clearly on the side of those who want to see a National Assembly with enhanced powers. Little wonder, perhaps, that First Minister Carwyn Jones is pushing for an Autumn poll”, he added. 
   
The Institute of Welsh Politics
The Institute of Welsh Politics is an independent and non-partisan research centre within the Department of International Politics at Aberystwyth University. It was established to promote the academic study and analysis of all aspects of Welsh politics. Reflecting its institutional home within the oldest Department of International Relations in the world, the work of the Institute focuses not only on the political process within Wales, but also on Wales' political and political-economic relations within Britain, Europe and the wider world.

The Wales Governance Centre
The Wales Governance Centre is a research centre supported by Cardiff University’s Law School and School of European Studies, and drawing together scholars from across the University. The Centre’s staff undertake innovative research into all aspects of the law and government of Wales, as well the wider UK and European contexts of devolved governance. The Centre also facilitates and encourages informed public debate of key developments in Welsh governance.